Monsoon prediction for 2011 is Normal - Met Department

The country is expected to receive normal monsoon this year. The meteorological department’s first monsoon forecast for the season has raised hopes of sustained farm growth and economic expansion this fiscal year.The met department expects 98% of average rainfall during this year’s monsoon season, which is well within the normal range.
The Met department said that there is “very low probability’’ of rains being deficient (below 90% of the long period average) or excess (above 110%). If the prediction holds, the country will have normal monsoon rains for the second year running, after a shortfall of 21% in 2009. Making the announcement, minister of earth sciences P K Bansal said the monsoon is expected to arrive on time–June 1 in Kerala. The forecast, however, comes with several caveats and uncertainties. The IMD report admits that “climate forecasts prepared at this time of the year (April) have large uncertainty”.